Reduce trade risk for now, due to the uncertainty in the markets. Tension between Ukraine and Russia, along with other news events, are causing an increase in volatility. We woke up to see big market shifts based on news and rumours, causing random market moves, so it’s time to be cautious and reduce trade risk if you’re actively trading at the moment. Smart Money and central banks could be taking advantage of the news, so we suggest that you trade no more than 2-3 pairs to help you reduce trade risk. With this strategy, if you are on wrong side when news hits, it will reduce your trade risk. There were similar conditions in 2020 following news of missiles being fired in Iran. These abnormal market conditions will go away, just be careful and patient and remember that GOLD, JPY, CHF and USD all become strong when investors are fleeing to safety.
The DXY is still stuck where we are looking for price to protect, but we are bullish for price to go higher before going lower. We will change our mind if goes below the ( members only ) area.
For EURUSD, price held the H4 order block we pointed out in the live sessions. It rejected during the news event, but came back up again. Price action looks to be trading to the downside.. our bias would change if we close above the order block at ( members only ).
GBPUSD is stuck in a range. It has a seasonal tendency to drop, which means that March to May is usually a good time to buy GBP. For now, it’s hard to trade and we suggest leaving it alone for the time being – we will be focusing on the EUR instead.
For NZDUSD, price went through the level to reject, and bumped above instead of seeking lower prices. Price may draw upward and attack the previous week’s high into the ( members only ) range. Strength on NZD can be used to trade lower prices on EURNZD, GBPNZD, NZDCHF – but we favor NZDCAD. Watch today’s replay for full details.
USDCAD is in consolidation long term, but you can look for a break in market structure on the 1M timeframe for a potential 2:1 scalp opportunity if price drops into the ( members only ) range. If that happens, look for buy opportunity above the high range of ( members only ).
For AUDUSD, it looks like price wants to attack the ( members only ) high on the weekly timeframe, but keep an eye on the bearish order block on the 4H. Look for potential rejection if price goes above the high of the ( members only ) range.
EURGBP disappointed us by dropping down again with a divergence. We will be waiting for a break in market structure before our next move, and are watching for price to go higher now that it has filled the gap. If we get confirmation, we could be in a position to send another trade idea. Today should reject a low of ( members only ). If we close above ( members only ) on the 15min timeframe, we would be interested in a buy tomorrow.
USOIL dropped yesterday (possibly influenced by new events), but we remain bullish and expect price to go higher. For now, price is expected to come back down and attack the low of ( members only ), possibly trading into the next gap on the downside. Watch for a potential break in market structure if price hits ( members only ).
BTCUSD traded to the levels we identified yesterday, but we recommend waiting for confirmation that price is breaking market structure on the lower timeframe before you buy. We outlined in detail how to use BTCUSD and ETHUSD price targets to indicate when to buy, so be sure to watch the replay of today’s live session.
For ETHUSD, price action indicates a retracement. Remember, price rallies are subject to sells, so you can look to sell short. We are looking for a range of ( members only ) before we look for higher prices.
As we have stressed, be sure to reduce trade risk if you’re actively trading until these abnormal market conditions resolve.
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